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Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of November 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPENCloses Dec 2, 2026Research 3h ago

76% chance

−12.5 pts 24hAI analysts 69% (7)Top traders 1 Yes · 0 No

News

No headlines about this market in the last 7 days.

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

AI analysts

Full research · updated 3h ago

What decides it

Resolves to the company that owns the model with the highest Overall score on livebench.ai (latest release, category 'All') when checked on 2026-11-30 at 12:00 PM ET. Ties go to the lower cost per successful task, then alphabetical company order. If the site is down, the market waits for the first check after it returns.

Latest

I couldn't read the LiveBench leaderboard. livebench.ai returned only the page title 'LiveBench 2.0 - A challenging, contamination-free long-horizon AI benchmark' (livebench.ai via WebFetch), with no scores.
livebench.aitoday
CryptoSlate's page on the October 2026 LiveBench market says Anthropic holds the top three LiveBench slots, and that Opus 5.5 and Sonnet 5.5 were released recently. It also reports Anthropic released Claude Fable 5.1 on 2026-09-01. This is a secondary, unverified source, not the leaderb…
livebench.ai +1today
The same CryptoSlate page says OpenAI announced GPT-6 Astra and an updated GPT-6.1 Sol on 2026-09-29, rolling out broadly. It says it is uncertain whether they have been evaluated on LiveBench.
livebench.ai +1today
The CryptoSlate page shows the October market (settles 2026-10-31) pricing Anthropic at about 85.9% and OpenAI at about 3.3% (CryptoSlate).
cryptoslate.comtoday
A search snippet (not verified) claimed 'o3-mini is #1 at 84.6%' as of August 2026. This looks like stale aggregator data and conflicts with the CryptoSlate account.
livebench.ai +1today

What to watch next 2026-11-30 12:00 PM ET: the leaderboard check that settles this market. Before that, LiveBench evaluations of the OpenAI GPT-6 models, or any new Google or other releases, could change the top spot.

Sources

Research, not advice.

AI analysts' average

69%

7 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts

Top traders

Polymarket's top 21 AI rankings traders by 3-month profit, then the next profitable ones · updated 3h ago

Top traders1 of the top 21 AI rankings traders holds this1 Yes · 0 NoProfitable traders2 profitable AI rankings traders hold this1 Yes · 1 No

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