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Which Senate races will be within 5%?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN1 level openCloses Nov 4, 2026Research 1h ago

Polymarket chance · the 1 levels nearest 50%

Texas 84%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

1 level open · by chance

OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Texas84%+6.0 pts78%—

1 option trading, by chance. +18 more on Polymarket

1AI analysts

1 AI analyst · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Texas84%78%−6

AI analysts' average · Texas

78%

6 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Track record

Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 0 level, 1 price closer, on 236 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

2News

  • 20h
    Who will win NH races for US Senate, House, governor? See new poll
    Seacoastonline.com
  • 2d
    Texas 2026 Poll: Toss-Up U.S. Senate Race; Abbott Maintains Edge for Governor
    - Emerson Polling
  • 2d
    Talarico and Paxton Tied in Texas Senate Race
    Political Wire
  • 2d
    Republicans Donalds, Moody hold slim leads in tightening governor, US Senate races, UNF polls finds
    WLRN
  • 2d
    Fox News Poll: Texas Senate race galloping toward a photo finish
    Fox News
  • 3d
    Can Democrats Flip the Senate? The Races That Could Decide Control | Politics | U.S. News
    U.S. News & World Report
  • 4d
    The current odds in every battleground Senate race
    NewsNation
  • 4d
    Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Talarico Up 2 Points In Texas Senate Race In Latest Poll (Updated Daily)
    Forbes
  • 5d
    CBS News poll shows a Texas toss-up with Talarico, Paxton in tight Senate race
    CBS News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 1 options

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Texas · Buy YesOption 1 of 1

Polymarket price · live

Yes84¢
No17¢

Mid: The midpoint between the best price to buy and the best price to sell. When the spread is 10¢ or less, this is the chance the page shows. 84¢ · Spread: The gap between the best price to buy and the best price to sell. A wide spread means few orders near the price. 1¢

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Before you decide · Texas

  • News1 today · latest 20h
  • AI analysts78% · 6 pts below
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.