MarketsClimate
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 20?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 3h ago
16% chance
−14.0 pts 24hAI analysts 15% (7)News
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AI analysts
Full research · updated 3h ago
What decides it
Resolves Yes if the highest 'Temp' reading on NOAA's weather.gov/wrh/timeseries page for Wellington Intl Airport (NZWN) on 20 Oct 2026 is 18°C (whole degrees Celsius). Otherwise it resolves No. If NOAA has no data by 11:59 PM ET on 21 Oct, Weather Underground is used. If neither has data, it resolves to the lowest bracket.
Latest
The wttr.in forecast for Kelburn, Wellington gives a daily max of 14°C on 19 Oct, 16°C on 20 Oct and 17°C on 21 Oct (wttr.in). This is a model forecast for a city location, not the airport station.
wttr.inMetService's Wellington page did not return forecast numbers, so I have no second forecast to compare.
wttr.inGeneral October climate for Wellington is highs around 14°C and lows around 10°C (weather2travel and similar climate sites, search snippets).
wttr.inThe NOAA page reports airport observations in whole °C. Wellington Airport can run warmer than the city forecast in northerly wind conditions.
wttr.in
What to watch next The 20 Oct 2026 NZWN observations. The market resolves once the first data point for 21 Oct is published.
Sources
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
15%
1 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
Top traders
Top tradersNone of the top 50 traders hold this market.
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