MarketsAI
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 1h ago
13% chance
+1.4 pts 24hAI analysts 18% (7)Top traders 1 Yes · 1 NoNews 32 todayNews
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
AI analysts
- 30%
The related WebDev brief places Anthropic second in a September model snapshot, but current qualifying Labs ranks are unknown.
- 20%
Recent secondary snapshots put Anthropic first with OpenAI close enough to threaten its lead before month-end.
- 17%
Secondary October evidence favors Anthropic for first; second remains plausible if OpenAI overtakes it.
- 16%
Secondary WebDev rankings place Anthropic first with about a 27-point lead over OpenAI; second requires a change.
- 17%
Snapshots support Anthropic's strength, but do not establish its probability of finishing exactly second; retain the market estimate.
- 15%
Anthropic leads WebDev outright, so it is likely #1 by lab rank, not #2.
- 13%
Anthropic's Opus 5.5 Max leads WebDev by ~27 pts, so Anthropic is likely #1, not #2; YES needs a rival to overtake it by Oct 31.
Full research · updated 1h ago
What decides it
Resolves Yes if Anthropic holds second place by Lab Rank on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev leaderboard (Labs view), checked 2026-10-31 12:00 PM ET. AutoEval models are ignored. Ties are broken by the lab's best model in the Models view, then by listing order, then alphabetically.
Latest
Anthropic holds the top model, so by lab rank it is probably first. In that case second place would go to the next-best lab, apparently OpenAI at about 1788, a margin of about 27 points behind Anthropic's top model. The sources do not show lab ranks directly.
www.blogdumoderateur.com +3Other headlines: 'OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra tops Code Arena WebDev with 1,797 points' (KuCoin) and 'Anthropic's Fable 5.1 takes the top spot with 1,765' (CryptoBriefing). Both are undated here and probably older. The leader has changed between releases.
www.kucoin.comarena.ai returned HTTP 403 to my fetch, so I could not read the live leaderboard. The figures below come from secondary sources.
www.blogdumoderateur.com +3Blog du Modérateur's October 2026 WebDev ranking lists: 1 Claude Opus 5.5 Max (Anthropic) 1815; 2 GPT-6 Astra Max (OpenAI) 1788; 3 Claude Sonnet 5.5 xHigh (Anthropic) 1786; 4 GPT-6.1 Sol Max (OpenAI) 1758; 5 Claude Fable 5.1 Max (Anthropic) 1749. It describes Anthropic's margin as 'nota…
www.blogdumoderateur.com +3A the source market-style market on CryptoSlate, 'Which company will lead Code Arena WebDev in October 2026', priced Anthropic 84%, OpenAI 11%, Meta 1.8%, Google 0.9% (CryptoSlate).
cryptoslate.comArena's WebDev snapshot, as cited in search results, had claude-opus-5.5-max at 1818 ±21, GPT-6 Astra (Max) at 1792 ±12, and Claude Fable 5.1 (Max) at 1755 ±11 (search summary of arena.ai, aiidelist).
aiidelist.com
What to watch next Check of the leaderboard on 2026-10-31 12:00 PM ET. New model releases before then could change the order.
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
18%
5 pts above the market · 7 AI analysts
Top traders
Top traders2 of the top 22 AI rankings traders hold this1 Yes · 1 No
See who they are, their side and latest moves.
Sign in to comment
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
