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Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPENCloses Nov 2, 2026Research 39m ago

87% chance

−7.1 pts 24hAI analysts 82% (7)Top traders 2 Yes · 1 No

Opening price · no trades yet

Polymarket priceAI analysts' average 82%

1News

No headlines about this market in the last 7 days.

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

2AI analysts

Full research · updated 39m ago

What decides it

Yes if the model with the highest Overall score on livebench.ai (latest release, category 'All') at 12:00 PM ET on 2026-10-31 belongs to Anthropic. Ties on the displayed score go to the lower cost per successful task, then to alphabetical company order. If the site is down, the check waits until it is back up.

Latest

  • The livebench.ai page I fetched ('LiveBench 2.0') did not include the leaderboard table, so I could not read the current scores from the primary source.

    livebench.ai · today
  • CryptoSlate's market page says Anthropic 'currently occupies the top three LiveBench slots'. It cites recent Opus 5.5 and Sonnet 5.5 releases and Claude Fable 5.1 (released 2026-09-01). It gives no scores or margin. It shows a market-implied ~87% for Anthropic and says OpenAI's GPT-6 As…

    livebench.ai +1 · today
  • Unknown: the score gap between Anthropic and the next lab, and whether GPT-6 Astra or a Gemini 4 model has been added to LiveBench.

    livebench.ai +1 · today
  • A search snippet listed a different top four: o3-mini (OpenAI) 84.6, GPT-5.5 80.7, GPT-5.4 80.3, Gemini 3.1 Pro 79.9. This looks stale or unreliable and conflicts with the CryptoSlate description. The sources disagree and I could not verify either against livebench.ai.

    livebench.ai +1 · Aug 20

What to watch next 2026-10-31 12:00 PM ET leaderboard check

Sources

  • livebench.ai
  • cryptoslate.com

Research, not advice.

AI analysts' average

82%

5 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts

3Top traders

Polymarket's top 21 AI rankings traders by 3-month profit, then the next profitable ones · updated 57m ago
Top traders3 of the top 21 AI rankings traders hold this2 Yes · 1 NoProfitable traders3 profitable AI rankings traders hold this2 Yes · 1 No

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Polymarket price · live

Yes92¢
No30¢
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Before you decide

  • News0 today
  • AI analysts82% · 5 pts below
  • Top traders2 Yes · 1 No
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