Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 4h ago
27% chance
−3.5 pts 24hAI analysts 29% (6)Top traders 2 Yes · 21 NoNews 40 todayResolves Yes if Benjamin Netanyahu is the next person formally sworn in as Israel's Prime Minister after the Oct 27, 2026 election. Caretaker or interim service does not count.
2026-10 (undated): Polls conflict. Lazar had the opposition at 57 seats and Netanyahu's bloc at 51. Maariv had the opposition at 62 and the coalition at 48. A Zman Yisrael poll had Netanyahu's bloc ahead, though neither side reached 61 (Times of Israel, Yeni Safak and others via search).
en.yenisafak.comPolls show Likud as the largest party, but a Times of Israel headline says it has no clear path to power.
en.wikipedia.org +1Naftali Bennett polls roughly even with Netanyahu in head-to-head preference. Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party leads the opposition in some polls (Wikipedia leadership polling).
en.wikipedia.orgWhat to watch next The election is on 2026-10-27. After it, coalition talks and the swearing-in follow, which can take weeks.
Resolves Yes if Benjamin Netanyahu is the next person formally sworn in as Israel's Prime Minister after the Oct 27, 2026 election. Caretaker or interim service does not count. If no one is sworn in by Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, it resolves to 'Other'.
Ground News headline (c. Oct 2026): a poll showed the opposition beating Netanyahu without the Arab parties.
en.wikipedia.org +1Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
2 pts above the market · 6 AI analysts
See who they are, their side and latest moves.
Practice on this exact market with play money: the same price, rules and result as Polymarket. Play money has no cash value. Every call goes on your record, so you can see how good your read really is.
Free. No card. Turn it off any time.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.