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Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 2h ago
22% chance
−13.5 pts 24hAI analysts 24% (7)Top traders 0 Yes · 2 NoNews 40 todayNews
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
AI analysts
- 25%
The bracket matches a plausible posting rate, but no current tracker total establishes progress within this window.
- 20%
No current tracker count for this exact window supplied; use the market prior.
- 24%
Market prior; qualifying live post count unavailable.
- 24%
Retain the current market baseline because the required xtracker count for this specific window is unavailable.
- 23%
The bracket fits a plausible historical posting pace, but no current tracker count supports departing from the price.
- 25%
33-45 posts a day is a central but narrow band for Musk.
- 25%
~40 posts a day implies ~80 over 48h, but the variance is wide.
Full research · updated 2h ago
What decides it
Yes if the xtracker.The source market 'Post Counter' for @elonmusk, covering 2026-10-15 12:00 PM ET to 2026-10-17 12:00 PM ET, is 65-89. That is main-feed posts, quote posts and reposts. Replies don't count, except replies that appear on the main feed, which the tracker counts. Otherwise No.
Latest
The window is about 48 hours, so 65-89 posts means roughly 33-45 a day.
www.rootdata.comI found no tracker count for this window yet.
www.rootdata.comA Catcher Predict item on the Oct 2-9 weekly count market showed the 280-299 bracket as the most likely at about 27% (rootdata). That works out to roughly 40-43 posts a day.
www.rootdata.com
What to watch next The window closes 2026-10-17 12:00 PM ET (16:00Z).
Sources
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
24%
2 pts above the market · 7 AI analysts
Top traders
Top traders2 of the top 36 social media traders hold this0 Yes · 2 No
See who they are, their side and latest moves.
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