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OPENResearch 3h ago
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+1.0 pts 24hAI analysts 17% (7)Top traders 1 Yes · 0 NoNews 12 todayYes needs Flávio Bolsonaro to win the Oct 25 runoff by 8 to 12 percentage points of valid votes (blank and null ballots excluded) in the official count; if reporting is ambiguous, the TSE's official results decide. A margin exactly on a bracket edge goes to the higher bracket.
Quaest (2,154 voters, Oct 10-13, margin of error 2 points, TSE BR-08729/2026, for Globo and O Globo): Flávio 46%, Lula 44%; 51% to 49% of valid votes.
tvtnews.com.brO Tempo reported a new Datafolha runoff poll due Thursday Oct 15, with fieldwork Oct 13-15.
www.otempo.com.brDatafolha (2,520 interviews, Oct 6-7): Flávio 49%, Lula 45% of all voters; 52% to 48% of valid votes.
www.otempo.com.brFlávio won the first round and leads both published runoff polls in valid votes (Datafolha 52-48, Oct 8; Quaest 51-49, Oct 14), and about 7.8% of first-round valid votes went to other candidates.
Flávio's first-round lead was 1.87 points and the latest runoff polls show 2-4 point valid-vote gaps, well below the 8-point floor; Quaest's 2-point gap is within its margin of error. A Lula win also resolves No.
What to watch next Datafolha's runoff poll due Oct 15 and later Quaest and Datafolha rounds, then the TSE count on the night of Oct 25.
Yes needs Flávio Bolsonaro to win the Oct 25 runoff by 8 to 12 percentage points of valid votes (blank and null ballots excluded) in the official count; if reporting is ambiguous, the TSE's official results decide. A margin exactly on a bracket edge goes to the higher bracket. A Lula win, or a Flávio win by under 8 or over 12 points, is No. In valid-vote terms 8-12 points means roughly 54-46 to 56-44.
TSE's first-round count (100% of sections): Flávio Bolsonaro 56,104,503 votes (47.03% of valid votes), Lula 53,879,538 (45.16%), a gap of 1.87 points.
resultados.tse.jus.brOther candidates drew about 7.8% of first-round valid votes, led by Augusto Cury 2.89%, Renan Santos 2.24% and Ronaldo Caiado 2.18%.
resultados.tse.jus.brAbstention was 21.08% of 158,745,502 voters; 2,300,798 blank and 3,674,249 null votes were left out of the valid-vote base.
resultados.tse.jus.brResearch, not advice.
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