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Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Event finishedResearch 3h ago
100% chance
+2.2 pts 24hAI analysts 90% (5)Top traders 2 Yes · 0 NoNews 5 todayNews
- match: Argon
- match: Argon
- match: Argon
- match: Argon
- match: Argon
- match: Argon
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AI research
What decides it
Yes if the first Gemini Argon-class model (name includes 'Argon', or officially described as an Argon model or its public counterpart) added to the agi.safe.ai Humanity's Last Exam chart shows HLE Accuracy of at least 55% at 12:00 PM ET on the next calendar day. If none is added by 2027-06-30 11:59 PM ET, it resolves No.
Latest
Secondary coverage says Argon leads 13 of 19 rows in Google's benchmark table. It reports an 'Agent's Last Exam' score of 39.5%, which is a different benchmark from HLE.
llm-stats.com +1I did not find an HLE score for Argon, or evidence that it is on agi.safe.ai.
llm-stats.com +1Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, available first to trusted partners and cyber defenders through the Fairwind Program (Google blog, via press).
llm-stats.com +1
Full research
Sources
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
90%
10 pts below the market · 5 AI analysts
All 5, with track records
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Top traders
2 of the top 50 hold this market2 Yes · 0 No
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Order book
Trading is closed for this market.
Rules
- Resolution criteria
- On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Argon model added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any model whose official name includes "Argon," or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify. The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity's Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity's Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity's Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity's Last Exam results. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity's Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model's HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
