MarketsBusiness
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $55 Week of October 12 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 3h ago
57% chance
−16.0 pts 24hAI analysts 37% (7)AI research
What decides it
Yes if any Pyth XAG/USD 1-minute candle Low is at or below $55.00 after market creation and within the week's sessions (Sun Oct 11 6:00 PM ET to Fri Oct 16 5:00 PM ET, with a daily 5–6 PM ET break). Pyth prices are used unrounded; COMEX silver futures daily lows are only a fallback for a Pyth outage.
Latest
The Pyth XAG/USD page (the named resolution source) showed a latest price of 55.61075 at about 00:28 UTC (8:28 PM ET Oct 14).
app.pyth.comBLS calendar: the Producer Price Index for September is released Oct 15 at 8:30 AM ET, and Import/Export Price Indexes on Oct 16 at 8:30 AM ET.
www.bls.govBLS: the September CPI rose 0.6% on the month (seasonally adjusted) and 3.7% over 12 months; core CPI rose 0.3% and 2.6%.
www.bls.gov
Case for Yes
Silver fell on Oct 14, the day September CPI came in at 3.7% over 12 months. Kitco's spot low of $55.27 was $0.27 above the line, and Pyth's own feed read $55.61 that evening.
Case for No
No source checked here shows a print at or below $55.00. Kitco's Oct 14 spot low was $55.27, and Kitco showed spot back near $55.88–$56.13 that evening.
What to watch next The PPI release on Oct 15 at 8:30 AM ET and the import/export price indexes on Oct 16, then the Pyth XAG/USD 1-minute lows until the window closes at 5:00 PM ET Friday Oct 16.
Full research
What decides it
Yes if any Pyth XAG/USD 1-minute candle Low is at or below $55.00 after market creation and within the week's sessions (Sun Oct 11 6:00 PM ET to Fri Oct 16 5:00 PM ET, with a daily 5–6 PM ET break). Pyth prices are used unrounded; COMEX silver futures daily lows are only a fallback for a Pyth outage. Trap: Kitco spot, COMEX futures and news quotes are not the Pyth feed and can differ by tens of cents. This brief could not read Pyth's 1-minute history, so it does not know whether a Pyth low has already touched $55.00.
Earlier
Yahoo Finance: December silver futures opened at $59.42, down from Tuesday's $59.53 close, and were at $58.72 at 7:11 a.m. ET.
finance.yahoo.comKitco spot silver showed a day's range of $55.27 to $59.76, with a bid of $55.88 and an ask of $56.13 at 8:25 p.m. EDT.
www.kitco.com
Sources
- BLS Consumer Price Index news release, September 2026 · www.bls.gov
- Silver price today, Wednesday, October 14, 2026 (Yahoo Finance) · finance.yahoo.com
- Kitco spot silver price chart · www.kitco.com
- Pyth XAG/USD price feed · app.pyth.com
- BLS release calendar 2026 · www.bls.gov
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
37%
20 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
All 7, with track records
AI analysts
- 30%
- 30%
- 55%
- 45%
- 25%
- 20%
- 55%
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of the week of October 12 2026, any 1-minute candle for Silver (XAGUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Silver (XAGUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Silver (XAGUSD) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAG%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Silver Futures (SI)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
