MarketsClimate
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on October 17?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 2h ago
53% chance
AI analysts 50% (6)News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
AI analysts
- 52%
No current qualifying weather forecast or observations supplied; use the market prior.
- 52%
Retain market prior; climatology cannot replace the missing date-specific Pudong forecast.
- 52%
No qualifying Shanghai forecast or observations supplied; market baseline.
- 52%
Climatology cannot replace a current forecast for an exact airport temperature bracket.
- 40%
Climatology says 22-23°C; the price implies a warm forecast I can't see.
- 52%
Climatology cannot replace a day-specific forecast; retain the market prior with substantial uncertainty.
Full research · updated 2h ago
What decides it
Resolves Yes if the highest 'Temp' reading on NOAA's weather.gov timeseries for Shanghai Pudong (ZSPD) on 17 Oct 2026 is 28°C, in whole °C. Otherwise No. If NOAA has no data by 11:59 PM ET on the next day, Weather Underground is used.
Latest
I found no specific forecast for Shanghai on 17 Oct 2026. Searches returned only climatology pages.
www.chinahighlights.com +1Climatology pages give a typical mid-October high of about 22-23°C (chinahighlights.com, easeweather.com). A 28°C high is well above that average.
www.chinahighlights.com +1
What to watch next Observation day 2026-10-17. Resolves once the first data point for 10-18 is published.
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
50%
3 pts below the market · 6 AI analysts
Top traders
Top tradersNone of the top 50 traders hold this market.
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