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Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPENCloses Jan 2, 2027

8% chance

— 24hTop traders 1 Yes · 4 NoNews 30 today
Polymarket price

News32Top traders5Test your call

1News

32 stories in 7 days · newest first · updated 5m ago
  • 29m
    Wharton report finds vast majority of U.S.-based companies use AI
    The Daily Pennsylvanianthedp.com
    match: U.S
  • 32m
    U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly gives Christina Hines' campaign a boost
    The Detroit Newsdetroitnews.com
    match: U.S
  • 3h
    U.S. warnings sow confusion, alarm in Ukraine over intelligence, Starlink access
    The Washington Postwashingtonpost.com
    match: U.S
  • 4h
    Three killed, three others injured in crash on U.S. 63 in Maries County
    KOMU 8komu.com
    match: U.S
  • 4h
    U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn reignites talks of 3rd District debate as early voting begins
    Iowa Capital Dispatchiowacapitaldispatch.com
    match: U.S
  • 5h
    U.S. Continues to Provide Intelligence to Ukraine, Officials Say
    The New York Timesnytimes.com
    match: U.S
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

2Top traders

Polymarket's top 50 geopolitics traders by 3-month profit · updated 3h ago
5 of the top 50 hold this market1 Yes · 4 No

See who they are, their side and latest moves.

From Polymarket's public data. Names link to their Polymarket profiles.

Play money · for training

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Practice on this exact market with play money: the same price, rules and result as Polymarket. Play money has no cash value. Every call goes on your record, so you can see how good your read really is.

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Rules

Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.

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US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Polymarket price · live

Yes8¢
No93¢
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Before you decide

  • News30 today · latest 29m
  • Top traders1 Yes · 4 No
Play money · for training

Test this call with play money before you decide. Same price as Polymarket. No cash value.