MarketsMovies & TV
Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 2h ago
76% chance
— 24hAI analysts 35% (2)Top traders 5 Yes · 1 NoAI research
What decides it
Resolves Yes if Whalefall's final 3-day domestic opening weekend (Oct 16-18, 2026, including Thursday previews) on The Numbers is under $8M. It resolves No if the figure is $8M or more.
Latest
Koimoi's tracking article projects a $10M–$15M domestic opening for Whalefall (Koimoi, via search snippet; I did not open the full article).
www.koimoi.comKoimoi cites comparable survival thrillers without A-list stars that opened between $8.4M and $13M: Greenland 2: Migration $8.4M, Moonfall $9.8M, Geostorm $13M (Koimoi).
www.koimoi.comKoimoi expects Whalefall to open below Brad Pitt's Heart of the Beast, which is projected at $15M–$25M. Both open this weekend.
www.koimoi.com
What to watch next Thursday previews on 2026-10-15, then weekend estimates on 2026-10-18. Final actuals follow on 2026-10-19.
Full research
What decides it
Resolves Yes if Whalefall's final 3-day domestic opening weekend (Oct 16-18, 2026, including Thursday previews) on The Numbers is under $8M. It resolves No if the figure is $8M or more. A figure exactly on a bracket boundary goes to the higher bracket. Studio estimates don't count. If final data isn't available by Oct 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another source will be chosen.
Sources
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
35%
41 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts
All 2, with track records
AI analysts
- 25%
- 45%
Top traders
6 of the top 19 hold this market5 Yes · 1 No
See who they are, their side and latest moves.
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to how much "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 16 - 18) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
