MarketsAI
Will Z.ai have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 3h ago
1% chance
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News
- match: Z.ai
- match: Z.ai
- match: Z.ai
- match: Z.ai
- match: Z.ai · DeepSeek
- match: Z.ai
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AI research
What decides it
Yes only if Z.ai is ranked exactly 3rd by percentage in OpenRouter's Market Share chart for the week of Oct 12-18, read once the week of Oct 19 first appears (or at Oct 23, 11:59 PM ET). 'Stealth' and 'Others' are skipped.
Latest
OpenRouter's rankings page lists text-request shares for the week beginning Oct 5 (its most recent complete week): DeepSeek 24.5%, OpenAI 18.6%, Google 17.8%, Z.ai 13.4%, Qwen 5.4%, Anthropic 3.9%.
openrouter.aiThe same table shows week-on-week request changes of +107% for Z.ai, +14% for DeepSeek, +3% for OpenAI and -16% for Google.
openrouter.aiOpenRouter's methodology note says the Top Models chart and LLM Leaderboard rank models by tokens processed, "while the Market Share chart counts requests."
openrouter.ai
Case for Yes
Z.ai's requests more than doubled (+107%) in the week of Oct 5 while third-placed Google's fell 16%, leaving Z.ai 4.4 points behind Google.
Case for No
In the latest complete week Z.ai was 4th at 13.4%, 4.4 points behind Google (17.8%) and 5.2 behind OpenAI (18.6%); it must pass Google without also passing OpenAI.
What to watch next The week of Oct 12-18 on openrouter.ai/rankings, read when the week of Oct 19 first displays (by Oct 23, 11:59 PM ET at the latest).
Full research
What decides it
Yes only if Z.ai is ranked exactly 3rd by percentage in OpenRouter's Market Share chart for the week of Oct 12-18, read once the week of Oct 19 first appears (or at Oct 23, 11:59 PM ET). 'Stealth' and 'Others' are skipped. Trap: OpenRouter says this chart counts requests, while its model leaderboards rank by tokens, so token rankings can mislead. Ties go to the larger Absolute-view figure, then alphabetical order. 2nd or 4th place is No.
Sources
- LLM Rankings - OpenRouter · openrouter.ai
Research, not advice.
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the AI lab with the third highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026 once the figures for the week of October 19, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of October 19, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 23, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 3rd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
