MarketsElections
2026 Taipei Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $331
Chiang Wan-an <4% 42%Chiang Wan-an 4-8% 40%Puma Shen <4% 40%Chiang Wan-an 12%+ 39%
8 optionsin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.Buy
Chiang Wan-an 12%+No smart money39%
Chiang Wan-an 8-12%No smart money23%
Chiang Wan-an 4-8%No smart money40%
Chiang Wan-an <4%No smart money42%
Puma Shen <4%No smart money40%
Puma Shen 4-8%No smart money38%
Puma Shen 8%+No smart money22%
OtherNo smart money2%
8 open levels, in level order.
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
8 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
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Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- The 2026 Taipei mayoral election is scheduled to take place on November 28, 2026, to elect the next mayor of Taipei. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.