MarketsTech
#2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of November 9?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $143.2
OpenAI 75%Google 4%DeepSeek 1%Z.ai 1%
12 optionsby chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.Buy
OpenAISmart money1 Yes0 No75%
GoogleSmart money1 Yes1 No4%
DeepSeekNo smart money1%
Z.aiSmart money0 Yes1 No1%
TencentNo smart money<1%
XiaomiNo smart money<1%
NvidiaNo smart money<1%
AnthropicNo smart money<1%
MiniMaxNo smart money<1%
MetaNo smart money<1%
QwenNo smart money<1%
xAINo smart money<1%
12 options trading, by chance.
AI analysts
The AI analysts are reviewing this market. Usually within the hour.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
GoogleYes molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 2, #15 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No 0x637e…8cea0x637e…8cea: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 2, #15 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 0x637e…8cea0x637e…8cea: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 · 1
OpenAIYes 0x637e…8cea0x637e…8cea: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 0x637e…8cea0x637e…8cea: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
Z.aiNo KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 2, #24 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 2, #24 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
9 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- OpenAI resolves Yes if it is the second-ranked AI lab by percentage in the OpenRouter Market Share chart for the week of November 9-15, 2026, skipping 'stealth' and 'others'. Ties are broken by Absolute token count, then alphabetically. It resolves once the week of November 16 figures first display, or at 11:59 PM ET on November 20, 2026 at the latest.
- Watch out
- The resolving figure is the Market Share chart's Percentage view for November 9-15, 2026, read when the week of November 16 first displays (or at 11:59 PM ET on November 20). 'Stealth' and 'others' are skipped, not counted as labs.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the AI lab with the second highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of November 9 to November 15, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of November 9 to November 15, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of November 9 to November 15, 2026 once the figures for the week of November 16, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of November 16, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on November 20, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of November 9 to November 15, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of November 9 to November 15, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 2nd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.