7-day average ship traffic through the Malacca Strait on November 30?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 17:34 ESTLast trade · 20m agoCloses Dec 1, 2026Polymarket 24h vol $220

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

190+ 50%210+ 50%220+ 50%230+ 50%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

6 levels openin level order

OptionBuy

180+93%

190+50%

200+50%

210+50%

220+50%

230+50%

6 open levels, in level order.

AI analysts

The AI analysts are reviewing this market. Usually within the hour.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 6 options

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Malacca Strait for November 30, 2026, according to IMF PortWatch, is at least the number specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. IMF PortWatch typically publishes a rounded 7-day moving average in the chart on its chokepoint page and an unrounded figure in its downloadable files. The figure shown in the chart will be used for settlement. If the chart is unavailable, the downloadable figure, rounded to the nearest whole number, will be used. This market will resolve once IMF PortWatch has published data for November 30, 2026. Revisions made after that point will not be considered, unless subject to the data integrity clause below. If that data is still unpublished 14 calendar days after November 30, 2026, this market will resolve on the most recent data published at that time. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the Transit Calls data published for the Malacca Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/5f51a0d85ac44a6bad02561e25899c4a.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Malacca Strait for November 30, 2026, according to IMF PortWatch, is at least the number specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. IMF PortWatch typically publishes a rounded 7-day moving average in the chart on its chokepoint page and an unrounded figure in its downloadable files. The figure shown in the chart will be used for settlement. If the chart is unavailable, the downloadable figure, rounded to the nearest whole number, will be used. This market will resolve once IMF PortWatch has published data for November 30, 2026. Revisions made after that point will not be considered, unless subject to the data integrity clause below. If that data is still unpublished 14 calendar days after November 30, 2026, this market will resolve on the most recent data published at that time. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the Transit Calls data published for the Malacca Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/5f51a0d85ac44a6bad02561e25899c4a.