MarketsPolitics
Alaska Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN2 optionsResearch 5d ago
Sullivan 0-3% 13%Sullivan 3-6% 6%
2 options · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
2 open levels, in level order. +8 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Sullivan 3-6%6%7%+1
Sullivan 0-3%13%17%+4
AI analysts' average · Sullivan 0-3%
17%
4 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 360 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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News
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OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if Dan Sullivan's margin of victory over the second-place candidate, as a share of all valid first-round votes in the November 3, 2026 Alaska Senate election, falls in the option's bracket. The brackets are 0-3% for R14 and 3-6% for R15. A value exactly on a bracket boundary goes to the higher bracket. If Sullivan does not finish first, the rules do not define Yes for these options. Resolution uses the official certified results, and if results are not definitive by June 30, 2027 (…
- Resolution criteria
- The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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