Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN7 optionsResearch 4d ago
290K-305K 43%275K-290K 29%305K-320K 15%320K+ 8%
7 options · in level order
7 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · 290K-305K
14 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 2 level, 0 price closer, on 360–394 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
7 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if the certified total of valid first-round votes in Alaska's 2026 general election for U.S. Senator falls within 290K-305K, including its lower boundary and excluding its upper boundary; otherwise No. All certified candidate and non-candidate votes count, excluding invalidated and blank votes; Alaska Division of Elections official results are primary, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used, and if results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:5…
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
