MarketsPolitics
Aleksandar Vučić arrested by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $100
December 31, 2026 15%November 30, 2026 3%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
2 levels openin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.AI analystsBuy
November 30, 2026No smart money3%
December 31, 2026No smart money15%8%
2 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
November 30, 20263%
December 31, 202615%8%−7
AI analysts' average · November 30, 2026
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Your forecast on November 30, 2026
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News
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
2 options: no ranked trader holds them
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Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aleksandar Vučić is arrested or detained by law enforcement by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.