MarketsPolitics
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN5 optionsResearch 10h ago
Democrats Sweep 66%R Senate, D House 27%Republicans Sweep 8%D Senate, R House <1%
5 options
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
5 options trading.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Democrats Sweep66%60%−6
D Senate, R House<1%1%0
R Senate, D House27%28%+1
Republicans Sweep8%7%−1
Other<1%1%+1
AI analysts' average · Democrats Sweep
60%
6 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 4 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Democrats SweepYes gopfan2gopfan2: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No DirkDiggler67DirkDiggler67: Tier 2, #32 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T210 gopfan2gopfan2: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1almost-neveralmost-never: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 DirkDiggler67DirkDiggler67: Tier 2, #32 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T210 · 1
R Senate, D HouseYes anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 5 anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 05 · 0
Republicans SweepNo Ryxon21Ryxon21: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 04 Ryxon21Ryxon21: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2pantomimepantomime: Tier 2, #31 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 0 · 4
D Senate, R HouseYes supersmardsupersmard: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 supersmardsupersmard: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
1 option: no ranked trader holds it
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Resolves Yes for the option that matches the party winning a majority of Senate voting seats and the party winning a majority of House voting seats in the 2026 midterms (Democrats Sweep's combination). A 50-50 Senate goes to the party holding the Vice Presidency. Independents who caucus with a party count for it. Runoff results decide runoff seats even if they come after November 2026. Any other result, such as an unresolved caucus decision, is 'Other'. All other combinations resolve No.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chambers. For determining Senate control, all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For determining House control, all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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