Bank of Japan Decision in January?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 03:34 UTCCloses Jan 22, 2027Polymarket 24h vol $0

Polymarket chance · top 4 of 5 options

50+ bps decrease 47%25 bps increase 47%No Change 46%50+ bps increase 46%

5 options · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

50+ bps decrease47%———

25 bps decrease46%———

No Change46%———

25 bps increase47%———

50+ bps increase46%———

5 open levels, in level order.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the January 2027 meeting of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its January 2027 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled to conclude on January 22, 2027, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board resulting from its January 2027 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the January 2027 meeting of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its January 2027 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled to conclude on January 22, 2027, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board resulting from its January 2027 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.