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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?AI 1% · News 32 · Closes 2d0%−0.2 pts−0.21%+10 · 72dWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Polymarket priceCloses 63d7%+1.0 pts+1.0——1 · 963dPutin out as President of Russia by...?June 30, 2027 · March 31, 2027 6% · December 31, 2026 2%June 30, 20279%0.00.05%−41 · 1244dMarch 31, 2027 6% · December 31, 2026 2%1hPutin Says Russia Is Prepared for War With Europe After Russia-Africa Summit: how 6 outlets framed it· NewsCordStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?AI 8% · News 37 · Closes 63d12%0.00.08%−40 · 1163dXi Jinping out before 2027?News 7 · Closes 63d3%−0.4 pts−0.4——0 · 363dNext leader out of power before 2027?None before 2027 · Netanyahu - Israel PM 16% · Sánchez - Spanish PM 9% · +19 moreNone before 202762%−4.5 pts−4.556%−62 · 163dNetanyahu - Israel PM 16% · Sánchez - Spanish PM 9% · +19 moreUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?December 31 · November 30 22% · November 2 6% · +1 moreDecember 3134%−3.0 pts−3.029%−5none63dNovember 30 22% · November 2 6% · +1 moreIran leadership change by...?June 30, 2027 · December 31 14% · November 30 10% · +1 moreJune 30, 202729%+0.5 pts+0.522%−71 · 0244dDecember 31 14% · November 30 10% · +1 moreUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? · Polymarket priceDecember 31 · November 30 8% · October 31 <1%December 3114%+1.0 pts+1.0——1 · 663dNovember 30 8% · October 31 <1%US imports Russian diesel by...?November 30 · November 15 36% · December 31 65% · +2 moreNovember 3044%−31.5 pts−31.536%−81 · 232dNovember 15 36% · December 31 65% · +2 moreWhat will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? · Polymarket price≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) · 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium 14% · Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) 14% · +3 more≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)15%+1.5 pts+1.5——2 · 163d1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium 14% · Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) 14% · +3 moreVenezuela leader end of 2026?Nicolás Maduro · Delcy Rodríguez 15% · No Head of State 1% · +13 moreNicolás Maduro81%−0.6 pts−0.660%−214 · 163dDelcy Rodríguez 15% · No Head of State 1% · +13 moreUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? · Polymarket priceCloses 63d5%+1.6 pts+1.6——none63dBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?December 31 · November 30 7% · October 31 <1%December 3115%+1.0 pts+1.012%−32 · 663dNovember 30 7% · October 31 <1%Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? · Polymarket priceCloses 62d6%−6.3 pts−6.3——4 · 262dRussia x Ukraine peace talks by...?November 30 · December 31 85% · October 31 1%November 3082%+1.5 pts+1.541%−411 · 232dDecember 31 85% · October 31 1%Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?December 31, 2026 · November 30, 2026 27% · October 31, 2026 2%December 31, 202644%+4.5 pts+4.539%−52 · 063dNovember 30, 2026 27% · October 31, 2026 2%Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Newt Gingrich · J.D. Vance 47% · Abbas Araghchi 43% · +21 moreNewt Gingrich80%+77.3 pts+77.31%−79none63dJ.D. Vance 47% · Abbas Araghchi 43% · +21 moreIran leader end of 2026? · Polymarket priceMojtaba Khamenei · No Head of State 4% · Reza Pahlavi 3% · +27 moreMojtaba Khamenei85%−0.7 pts−0.7——8 · 163dNo Head of State 4% · Reza Pahlavi 3% · +27 moreWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?News 2 · Closes 63d3%+0.1 pts+0.1——0 · 463dIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?December 31 · October 31 <1%December 316%0.00.06%—3 · 163dOctober 31 <1%Maduro Prison Time? · Polymarket priceNo prison time · 60+ 29% · <20 12% · +2 moreNo prison time44%−7.5 pts−7.5——1 · 1428d60+ 29% · <20 12% · +2 moreNetanyahu out by...?June 30, 2027 · March 31, 2027 26% · December 31 21%June 30, 202743%+3.5 pts+3.540%−3none244dMarch 31, 2027 26% · December 31 21%How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026? · Polymarket price4 · 5 22% · 6 3% · +9 more469%−2.2 pts−2.2——none63d5 22% · 6 3% · +9 more