How do I trade on "Will no listed leader be out before 2027?"?

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Next leader out of power before 2027?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN22 optionsCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 31m ago

Polymarket chance · top 4 of 22 options

None before 2027 65%Netanyahu - Israel PM 12%Sánchez - Spanish PM 7%Lecornu - France PM 3%

22 options · by chance

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

None before 202765%+20.0 pts48%3 · 1

Netanyahu - Israel PM12%−27.0 pts28%none

Sánchez - Spanish PM7%+3.0 pts4%none

Lecornu - France PM3%+1.4 pts5%none

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP3%+0.8 pts1%none

Merz - German Chancellor1%−0.3 pts1%none

Abbas - President of Palestine1%+0.3 pts3%1 · 0

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President1%+0.6 pts1%1 · 0

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President<1%+0.4 pts1%none

Lula da Silva - Brazil President<1%+0.4 pts1%none

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President<1%−1.8 pts1%none

Trump - USA President<1%+0.1 pts1%none

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea<1%−0.4 pts3%none

Macron - France President<1%−0.2 pts1%none

Putin - Russia President<1%+0.1 pts1%none

Takaichi - Japan PM<1%+0.1 pts1%none

al-Sharaa - Syria President<1%+0.1 pts1%none

Erdoğan - Türkiye President<1%—1%none

Albanese - Australia PM<1%—1%none

Milei - Argentina President<1%+0.1 pts1%none

Sheinbaum - Mexico President<1%+0.1 pts1%none

Newsom - California Governor<1%+0.1 pts1%none

22 options trading, by chance.

AI analysts

4 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 31m ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

None before 202765%48%−17

Netanyahu - Israel PM12%28%+16

Sánchez - Spanish PM7%4%−3

Lecornu - France PM3%5%+2

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP3%1%−2

Merz - German Chancellor1%1%0

+16 more options

AI analysts' average · None before 2027

48%

17 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts

Track record

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

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Polymarket's geopolitics traders by 3-month profit · updated 7h ago

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

None before 2027Yes whig T2 No LJa7io23MCv954j T23 whig T2101456 T2 1 LJa7io23MCv954j T23 · 1

Abbas - President of PalestineYes whig T21 whig T201 · 0

Zelenskyy - Ukraine PresidentYes smellyEllie T21 smellyEllie T201 · 0

19 options: no ranked trader holds them

Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 22 options

Resolves Yes for None before 2027 if None before 2027 is the first of the 22 listed individuals to permanently cease holding their listed office, with the listed office as named in each option. If none of them has done so by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, 'None before 2027' resolves Yes. A resignation or removal announcement alone does not count. A scheduled departure after an election does not count. Temporary removals do not count, such as impeachment suspensions or a temporary 25th Amendment transfer. Staying on as caretaker or interim does not count as leaving. The resolution source is a consensus of cr…Show rulesHide rules

In plain English: Resolves Yes for None before 2027 if None before 2027 is the first of the 22 listed individuals to permanently cease holding their listed office, with the listed office as named in each option. If none of them has done so by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, 'None before 2027' resolves Yes. A resignation or removal announcement alone does not count. A scheduled departure after an election does not count. Temporary removals do not count, such as impeachment suspensions or a temporary 25th Amendment transfer. Staying on as caretaker or interim does not count as leaving. The resolution source is a consensus of cr…
Watch out: A resignation announcement, a scheduled post-election departure, a temporary transfer of power, or continuing as caretaker or interim does not count. Only permanent removal before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET does.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

How markets resolve