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Next leader out of power before 2027?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN22 optionsCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 59m ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 22 options

None before 2027 47%Netanyahu - Israel PM 33%Sánchez - Spanish PM 6%Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea 4%

22 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
None before 202747%+0.5 pts46%2 · 1
Netanyahu - Israel PM33%+6.5 pts26%none
Sánchez - Spanish PM6%+1.0 pts5%none
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea4%+1.0 pts1%—
Lecornu - France PM3%+0.2 pts4%—
Trump - USA President2%−0.1 pts1%—
Abbas - President of Palestine2%+0.1 pts3%—
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President2%−0.1 pts1%—
Merz - German Chancellor1%+0.1 pts1%—
Macron - France President1%+0.2 pts1%—
Lula da Silva - Brazil President<1%+0.1 pts1%—
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President<1%+0.4 pts1%—
Erdoğan - Türkiye President<1%+0.1 pts1%—
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP<1%—1%—
Putin - Russia President<1%−0.1 pts1%—
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President<1%−0.2 pts1%—
al-Sharaa - Syria President<1%+0.1 pts2%—
Milei - Argentina President<1%+0.2 pts1%—
Albanese - Australia PM<1%+0.1 pts1%—
Takaichi - Japan PM<1%−0.1 pts1%—
Newsom - California Governor<1%—1%—
Sheinbaum - Mexico President<1%−0.1 pts1%—

22 options trading, by chance. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

6 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 59m ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
None before 202747%46%−1
Netanyahu - Israel PM33%26%−7
Sánchez - Spanish PM6%5%−1
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea4%1%−3
Lecornu - France PM3%4%+1
Trump - USA President2%1%−1
+16 more options

AI analysts' average · Merz - German Chancellor

1%

level with the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Netanyahu - Israel PM: AI 26% vs market 33%, 7 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

2News

  • 16h
    Germany wants to avoid China trade war despite EU ‘kill switch’: Merz
    South China Morning Post
  • 17h
    Merz: EU does not want trade war but will protect its industries
    Latest news from Azerbaijan
  • 18h
    Friedrich Merz calls on Trump to invite South Africa to G20 summit
    A News
  • 18h
    Germany’s Merz says EU does not want a trade war with China but will defend itself
    A News
  • 19h
    ‘Ukraine’s Capitulation Not an Option’ – Merz Backs Kyiv in Peace Talks
    Kyiv Post
  • 23h
    CDU hits new low in polls as Bavarian voters question Merz’s leadership
    Brussels Signal
  • 23h
    Merz Says EU to Avoid China Trade War as It Defends Itself
    Bloomberg.com
  • 2d
    Merz to host global business leaders, Nvidia CEO at investment summit
    Yahoo Finance
  • 5d
    Licensable picture: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz
    Reuters Connect
  • 5d
    ‘Where is his authority?’ Germany is losing patience with Friedrich Merz
    The Irish Times
  • 6d
    Germany’s Friedrich Merz vows to fight on: ‘We are the firewall’
    Financial Times
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
None before 202732 · 1

2 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 22 options

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

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Merz - German Chancellor · Buy YesOption 9 of 22

Polymarket price · live

Yes2¢
No99¢
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Before you decide · Merz - German Chancellor

  • News7 today · latest 16h
  • AI analysts1% · level
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.