How do I trade on "Will Palmer Luckey attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN23 levels openCloses Jan 1, 2027Research 52m ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Jared Kushner 34%Steve Witkoff 34%Abbas Araghchi 32%Majid Takht-Ravanchi 29%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

23 levels open · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Jared Kushner34%−1.5 pts31%1 · 0

Steve Witkoff34%−1.5 pts33%1 · 0

Abbas Araghchi32%−3.0 pts33%1 · 0

Majid Takht-Ravanchi29%+1.0 pts19%2 · 0

Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani29%−0.5 pts29%1 · 0

Nick Stewart26%+0.5 pts18%none

Kazem Gharibabadi23%—21%1 · 0

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf22%−0.5 pts22%none

J.D. Vance20%+2.0 pts20%2 · 0

Ishaq Dar19%−1.0 pts19%0 · 1

Rafael Grossi17%—14%none

Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi15%—12%none

Masoud Pezeshkian12%−0.5 pts7%1 · 1

Donald Trump9%−0.2 pts6%0 · 1

Marco Rubio9%—6%none

Pete Hegseth5%—3%—

Ahmad Vahidi4%—4%—

Elon Musk3%—2%—

Esmail Qaani3%+0.1 pts1%—

Mojtaba Khamenei2%+0.1 pts1%—

Newt Gingrich2%—1%—

Mohammed bin Salman2%—3%—

Palmer Luckey2%−0.1 pts1%—

23 options trading, by chance. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 52m ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Jared Kushner34%31%−3

Steve Witkoff34%33%−1

Abbas Araghchi32%33%+1

Majid Takht-Ravanchi29%19%−10

Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani29%29%0

Nick Stewart26%18%−8

+17 more options

AI analysts' average · Palmer Luckey

1 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Majid Takht-Ravanchi: AI 19% vs market 29%, 10 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

News

15h
Robinhood’s Retail Fund Buys $30 Million Stake in Erebor Bank, Co-Founded by Palmer Luckey
Benzinga
4d
Progressive Charlestown : Elon Musk , Newt Gingrich , and Palmer Luckey walk into a bar ... and are given the keys to the DoD .
progressive-charlestown.com

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

Majid Takht-Ravanchi22 · 0

J.D. Vance22 · 0

Masoud Pezeshkian21 · 1

Jared Kushner11 · 0

Steve Witkoff11 · 0

Abbas Araghchi11 · 0

Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani11 · 0

Kazem Gharibabadi11 · 0

Ishaq Dar10 · 1

Donald Trump10 · 1

5 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 23 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN23 levels openCloses Jan 1, 2027Research 52m ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Jared Kushner 34%Steve Witkoff 34%Abbas Araghchi 32%Majid Takht-Ravanchi 29%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

23 levels open · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Jared Kushner34%−1.5 pts31%1 · 0

Steve Witkoff34%−1.5 pts33%1 · 0

Abbas Araghchi32%−3.0 pts33%1 · 0

Majid Takht-Ravanchi29%+1.0 pts19%2 · 0

Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani29%−0.5 pts29%1 · 0

Nick Stewart26%+0.5 pts18%none

Kazem Gharibabadi23%—21%1 · 0

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf22%−0.5 pts22%none

J.D. Vance20%+2.0 pts20%2 · 0

Ishaq Dar19%−1.0 pts19%0 · 1

Rafael Grossi17%—14%none

Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi15%—12%none

Masoud Pezeshkian12%−0.5 pts7%1 · 1

Donald Trump9%−0.2 pts6%0 · 1

Marco Rubio9%—6%none

Pete Hegseth5%—3%—

Ahmad Vahidi4%—4%—

Elon Musk3%—2%—

Esmail Qaani3%+0.1 pts1%—

Mojtaba Khamenei2%+0.1 pts1%—

Newt Gingrich2%—1%—

Mohammed bin Salman2%—3%—

Palmer Luckey2%−0.1 pts1%—

23 options trading, by chance. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 52m ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Jared Kushner34%31%−3

Steve Witkoff34%33%−1

Abbas Araghchi32%33%+1

Majid Takht-Ravanchi29%19%−10

Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani29%29%0

Nick Stewart26%18%−8

+17 more options

AI analysts' average · Palmer Luckey

1 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Majid Takht-Ravanchi: AI 19% vs market 29%, 10 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

News

15h
Robinhood’s Retail Fund Buys $30 Million Stake in Erebor Bank, Co-Founded by Palmer Luckey
Benzinga
4d
Progressive Charlestown : Elon Musk , Newt Gingrich , and Palmer Luckey walk into a bar ... and are given the keys to the DoD .
progressive-charlestown.com

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

Majid Takht-Ravanchi22 · 0

J.D. Vance22 · 0

Masoud Pezeshkian21 · 1

Jared Kushner11 · 0

Steve Witkoff11 · 0

Abbas Araghchi11 · 0

Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani11 · 0

Kazem Gharibabadi11 · 0

Ishaq Dar10 · 1

Donald Trump10 · 1

5 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 23 options

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

1AI analysts

2News

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 23 options

Related Markets

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

1AI analysts

2News

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 23 options

Related Markets

AI analysts

News

AI analysts

News