MarketsWorld
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN23 levels openResearch 1h ago
Jared Kushner 34%Steve Witkoff 34%Abbas Araghchi 32%Majid Takht-Ravanchi 30%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
23 levels open · by chance
OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
23 options trading, by chance. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Jared Kushner34%31%−3
Steve Witkoff34%33%−1
Abbas Araghchi32%33%+1
Majid Takht-Ravanchi30%19%−11
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani29%29%0
Nick Stewart26%18%−8
+17 more options
AI analysts' average · Elon Musk
2%
1 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts
Biggest gap
Majid Takht-Ravanchi: AI 19% vs market 30%, 11 pts below
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
Majid Takht-Ravanchi22 · 0
J.D. Vance22 · 0
Masoud Pezeshkian21 · 1
Jared Kushner11 · 0
Steve Witkoff11 · 0
Abbas Araghchi11 · 0
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani11 · 0
Kazem Gharibabadi11 · 0
Ishaq Dar10 · 1
Donald Trump10 · 1
5 options: no ranked trader holds them
Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Sign in to comment
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
