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Fed Decision in December?25 bps increase · No change 27% · 50+ bps increase 2% · +2 more25 bps increase71%−9.0 pts−9.077%+610 · 341dNo change 27% · 50+ bps increase 2% · +2 moreHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?0 (0 bps) · 1 (25 bps) 2% · 2 (50 bps) <1% · +10 more0 (0 bps)97%+0.7 pts+0.7——8 · 163d1 (25 bps) 2% · 2 (50 bps) <1% · +10 moreAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?AI 77% · News 7 · Closes 41d72%−7.5 pts−7.577%+56 · 341dHow low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027? · Polymarket priceBelow 4.70% · Below 4.65% 60% · Below 4.60% 52% · +10 moreBelow 4.70%78%+16.5 pts+16.5——2 · 062dBelow 4.65% 60% · Below 4.60% 52% · +10 moreHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026? · Polymarket price2 (50 bps) · 1 (25 bps) 26% · 3 (75 bps) <1% · +2 more2 (50 bps)74%−6.0 pts−6.0——3 · 263d1 (25 bps) 26% · 3 (75 bps) <1% · +2 moreFed Decision in January?No change · 25 bps increase 25% · 25 bps decrease 1% · +2 moreNo change72%+6.0 pts+6.065%−75 · 190d25 bps increase 25% · 25 bps decrease 1% · +2 moreFed Decision in March? · Polymarket price25 bps increase · No change 42% · 25 bps decrease 5% · +2 more25 bps increase47%+5.0 pts+5.0——1 · 0139dNo change 42% · 25 bps decrease 5% · +2 moreBank of Mexico Decision in November? · Polymarket priceNo change · 25 bps decrease 14% · 50+ bps decrease <1% · +2 moreNo change85%+2.5 pts+2.5———7d25 bps decrease 14% · 50+ bps decrease <1% · +2 moreFed Decision in April? · Polymarket priceNo change · 25 bps increase 24% · 50+ bps decrease 9% · +2 moreNo change57%+1.5 pts+1.5——none181d25 bps increase 24% · 50+ bps decrease 9% · +2 moreUS recession by end of 2026? · Polymarket priceCloses 62d7%+1.0 pts+1.0———62dBank of England decision in November?25 bps increase · No change 2% · 25 bps decrease <1% · +2 more25 bps increase98%−0.3 pts−0.392%−6—7dNo change 2% · 25 bps decrease <1% · +2 moreFed decisions (Sep–Dec) · Polymarket priceHike–Pause–Hike · Hike–Pause–Pause 27% · Other 2%Hike–Pause–Hike72%−7.5 pts−7.5——4 · 241dHike–Pause–Pause 27% · Other 2%How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027? · Polymarket priceBelow 5.25% · Below 5.20% 56% · Below 5.15% 54% · +7 moreBelow 5.25%83%+13.5 pts+13.5——1 · 062dBelow 5.20% 56% · Below 5.15% 54% · +7 moreBank of Canada Decision in December?No Change · 25 bps increase 35% · 50+ bps increase <1% · +2 moreNo Change65%+2.0 pts+2.060%−5—40d25 bps increase 35% · 50+ bps increase <1% · +2 moreFed rate cut by...? · Polymarket priceJuly 2027 Meeting · April 2027 Meeting 60% · June 2027 Meeting 37% · +3 moreJuly 2027 Meeting61%+15.5 pts+15.5——none456dApril 2027 Meeting 60% · June 2027 Meeting 37% · +3 moreFed decisions (Oct-Jan) · Polymarket pricePause-Hike-Pause · Pause-Pause-Pause 16% · Pause-Pause-Hike 13% · +2 morePause-Hike-Pause63%−3.5 pts−3.5——2 · 390dPause-Pause-Pause 16% · Pause-Pause-Hike 13% · +2 moreHow high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027? · Polymarket price5.10% · 5.05% 53% · 5.00% 53% · +4 more5.10%35%−5.1 pts−5.1——1 · 362d5.05% 53% · 5.00% 53% · +4 moreECB Interest Rates: December 2026 · Polymarket price25 bps increase · No change 13% · 50+ bps decrease <1% · +2 more25 bps increase86%+21.5 pts+21.5———48dNo change 13% · 50+ bps decrease <1% · +2 moreOctober Unemployment Rate · Polymarket price4.2% · 4.1% 29% · 4.3% 23% · +6 more4.2%41%−3.0 pts−3.0———8d4.1% 29% · 4.3% 23% · +6 moreMoody's or S&P downgrades France by...? · Polymarket priceNovember 30 · October 31 5%November 3041%+22.5 pts+22.5———32dOctober 31 5%US recession by end of 2027? · Polymarket priceCloses 428d31%−4.0 pts−4.0———428dOctober Inflation US - Annual · Polymarket price3.7% · 3.8% 4% · 4.0% 2% · +9 more3.7%90%−0.5 pts−0.5———12d3.8% 4% · 4.0% 2% · +9 moreUSD x Iranian rials End of October?2.7-2.8M · 2.6-2.7M 20% · 2.8M+ 12% · +4 more2.7-2.8M69%+12.0 pts+12.031%−38—2d2.6-2.7M 20% · 2.8M+ 12% · +4 moreUS Birth Rate in 2026? (Per 1000 Women) · Polymarket price52.0+ · 52.5+ 35% · 53.0+ 28% · +2 more52.0+56%−7.5 pts−7.5——none183d52.5+ 35% · 53.0+ 28% · +2 more