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Fed Decision in December?25 bps increase · No change 28% · 50+ bps increase 2% · +2 more25 bps increase70%−10.0 pts−10.077%+710 · 341dNo change 28% · 50+ bps increase 2% · +2 moreHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?0 (0 bps) · 1 (25 bps) 1% · 2 (50 bps) <1% · +10 more0 (0 bps)98%+0.8 pts+0.8——8 · 163d1 (25 bps) 1% · 2 (50 bps) <1% · +10 moreHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026? · Polymarket price2 (50 bps) · 1 (25 bps) 30% · 3 (75 bps) <1% · +2 more2 (50 bps)70%−10.5 pts−10.5——3 · 263d1 (25 bps) 30% · 3 (75 bps) <1% · +2 moreAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?AI 77% · News 6 · Closes 41d69%−10.5 pts−10.577%+86 · 341dHow low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027? · Polymarket priceBelow 4.70% · Below 4.65% 68% · Below 4.50% 53% · +10 moreBelow 4.70%80%+18.5 pts+18.5——2 · 062dBelow 4.65% 68% · Below 4.50% 53% · +10 moreFed Decision in January?No change · 25 bps increase 26% · 25 bps decrease 1% · +2 moreNo change72%+5.0 pts+5.065%−75 · 190d25 bps increase 26% · 25 bps decrease 1% · +2 moreFed Decision in March? · Polymarket price25 bps increase · No change 42% · 25 bps decrease 5% · +2 more25 bps increase45%+3.5 pts+3.5——1 · 0139dNo change 42% · 25 bps decrease 5% · +2 moreFed Decision in April? · Polymarket priceNo change · 25 bps increase 24% · 50+ bps decrease 9% · +2 moreNo change57%+1.5 pts+1.5——none181d25 bps increase 24% · 50+ bps decrease 9% · +2 moreFed decisions (Sep–Dec) · Polymarket priceHike–Pause–Hike · Hike–Pause–Pause 28% · Other 2%Hike–Pause–Hike71%−7.5 pts−7.5——4 · 241dHike–Pause–Pause 28% · Other 2%Fed rate cut by...? · Polymarket priceJuly 2027 Meeting · April 2027 Meeting 60% · June 2027 Meeting 37% · +3 moreJuly 2027 Meeting61%+15.5 pts+15.5——none456dApril 2027 Meeting 60% · June 2027 Meeting 37% · +3 moreHow high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027? · Polymarket price5.00% · 5.05% 42% · 5.10% 43% · +4 more5.00%55%−14.0 pts−14.0——1 · 162d5.05% 42% · 5.10% 43% · +4 moreFed decisions (Oct-Jan) · Polymarket pricePause-Hike-Pause · Pause-Pause-Pause 15% · Pause-Pause-Hike 13% · +2 morePause-Hike-Pause62%−3.0 pts−3.0——2 · 390dPause-Pause-Pause 15% · Pause-Pause-Hike 13% · +2 moreHow low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027? · Polymarket priceBelow 5.25% · Below 5.20% 63% · Below 5.15% 54% · +7 moreBelow 5.25%82%+12.0 pts+12.0——1 · 062dBelow 5.20% 63% · Below 5.15% 54% · +7 moreHow high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027? · Polymarket price5.60% · 5.50% 70% · 5.40% 80% · +4 more5.60%55%−1.5 pts−1.5——none62d5.50% 70% · 5.40% 80% · +4 moreFed emergency rate cut before 2027? · Polymarket priceCloses 63d4%+1.8 pts+1.8———63dHow low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October? · Polymarket priceBelow 4.60% · Below 4.55% 25% · Below 4.50% 24% · +2 moreBelow 4.60%37%+19.0 pts+19.0——0 · 12dBelow 4.55% 25% · Below 4.50% 24% · +2 moreHow many dissent at the December Fed meeting? · Polymarket price0 · 2 14% · 1 13% · +2 more067%+7.5 pts+7.5——2 · 041d2 14% · 1 13% · +2 moreHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October? · Polymarket price5.60% · 5.55% <1% · 5.35% <1% · +5 more5.60%2%+0.8 pts+0.8———2d5.55% <1% · 5.35% <1% · +5 moreHow high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027? · Polymarket price4.85% · 4.80% 57% · 4.90% 36% · +8 more4.85%54%−8.5 pts−8.5——none63d4.80% 57% · 4.90% 36% · +8 moreHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October? · Polymarket priceBelow 4.95% · Below 4.85% 37% · Below 4.90% 26%Below 4.95%72%+42.0 pts+42.0———2dBelow 4.85% 37% · Below 4.90% 26%How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October? · Polymarket price5.76% · 5.80% 2% · 5.95% 2% · +5 more5.76%2%0.00.0———2d5.80% 2% · 5.95% 2% · +5 moreHow low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October? · Polymarket priceCloses 2d15%−14.2 pts−14.2——1 · 02dHow high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October? · Polymarket price4.86% · 4.89% 16% · 4.92% 4% · +6 more4.86%38%+25.9 pts+25.9———2d4.89% 16% · 4.92% 4% · +6 moreHow high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October? · Polymarket price5.45% · 5.08% 27% · 5.35% 3% · +6 more5.45%46%+44.4 pts+44.4——none2d5.08% 27% · 5.35% 3% · +6 more