MarketsBusiness
Fed Decision in January?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN5 optionsResearch 3d ago
No change 64%25 bps increase 34%25 bps decrease 1%50+ bps increase 1%
5 options · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
5 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
50+ bps decrease<1%1%0
25 bps decrease1%1%0
No change64%66%+2
25 bps increase34%32%−2
50+ bps increase1%1%0
AI analysts' average · No change
66%
2 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 394 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
No changeYes CDAP1CDAP1: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No RememberAmalekRememberAmalek: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T23 CDAP1CDAP1: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1forgetfuldoryforgetfuldory: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 RememberAmalekRememberAmalek: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T23 · 1
25 bps increaseYes CDAP1CDAP1: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No forgetfuldoryforgetfuldory: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T23 CDAP1CDAP1: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1RememberAmalekRememberAmalek: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 forgetfuldoryforgetfuldory: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T23 · 1
50+ bps decreaseYes forgetfuldoryforgetfuldory: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 forgetfuldoryforgetfuldory: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2RememberAmalekRememberAmalek: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
50+ bps increaseYes forgetfuldoryforgetfuldory: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 forgetfuldoryforgetfuldory: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2RememberAmalekRememberAmalek: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
25 bps decreaseYes forgetfuldoryforgetfuldory: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 forgetfuldoryforgetfuldory: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- The market resolves on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range after the FOMC's January 26-27, 2027 meeting, as stated in the FOMC statement. No change resolves Yes if the change matches that bracket, and No otherwise. A change not in the listed brackets is rounded up to the nearest 25 bps. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the 'No change' bracket.
- Resolution criteria
- The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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