How do I trade on "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Fed Decision in January?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN5 optionsCloses Jan 28, 2027Research 2h ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 5 options

No change 60%25 bps increase 37%50+ bps increase 1%25 bps decrease 1%

5 options · in level order

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

50+ bps decrease<1%−0.1 pts1%1 · 0

25 bps decrease1%−0.3 pts4%none

No change60%+0.5 pts60%2 · 1

25 bps increase37%+0.5 pts35%2 · 1

50+ bps increase1%−0.2 pts1%1 · 0

5 open levels, in level order. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 2h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

50+ bps decrease<1%1%0

25 bps decrease1%4%+3

No change60%60%0

25 bps increase37%35%−2

50+ bps increase1%1%0

AI analysts' average · 50+ bps decrease

level with the market · 5 AI analysts

Biggest gap

25 bps decrease: AI 4% vs market 1%, 3 pts above

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

News

No headlines about this market in the last 7 days.

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's Fed and rates traders by 3-month profit · updated 2h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

No change32 · 1

25 bps increase32 · 1

50+ bps decrease11 · 0

50+ bps increase11 · 0

1 option: no ranked trader holds it

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Fed Decision in January?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN5 optionsCloses Jan 28, 2027Research 2h ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 5 options

No change 60%25 bps increase 37%50+ bps increase 1%25 bps decrease 1%

5 options · in level order

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

50+ bps decrease<1%−0.1 pts1%1 · 0

25 bps decrease1%−0.3 pts4%none

No change60%+0.5 pts60%2 · 1

25 bps increase37%+0.5 pts35%2 · 1

50+ bps increase1%−0.2 pts1%1 · 0

5 open levels, in level order. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 2h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

50+ bps decrease<1%1%0

25 bps decrease1%4%+3

No change60%60%0

25 bps increase37%35%−2

50+ bps increase1%1%0

AI analysts' average · 50+ bps decrease

level with the market · 5 AI analysts

Biggest gap

25 bps decrease: AI 4% vs market 1%, 3 pts above

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

News

No headlines about this market in the last 7 days.

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's Fed and rates traders by 3-month profit · updated 2h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

No change32 · 1

25 bps increase32 · 1

50+ bps decrease11 · 0

50+ bps increase11 · 0

1 option: no ranked trader holds it

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options

Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Fed Decision in January?

1AI analysts

2News

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options

Related Markets

Fed Decision in January?

1AI analysts

2News

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options

Related Markets

AI analysts

News

AI analysts

News