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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
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OPENResearch 4h ago
41% chance
— 24hAI analysts 29% (6)Top traders 3 Yes · 0 NoOpening price · no trades yet
AI research
What decides it
Resolves to the change in bps of the upper bound of the fed funds target range at the 26-27 Jan 2027 FOMC meeting, per the FOMC statement. This market is Yes if that change is a +25 bps increase.
Latest
2026-09: August payrolls rose 162k and unemployment was 4.1%. Headline inflation was 3.4% y/y and core 2.4% (search summary; these figures may be inconsistent and should be verified at BLS).
www.federalreserve.gov +3Remaining meetings before January: 27-28 Oct and, from the usual calendar, a December meeting (date not verified).
www.federalreserve.gov +3Futures implied about an 80% chance of a hold at the 27-28 Oct meeting, with a 25 bps hike at about 20%.
www.federalreserve.gov +3
What to watch next FOMC meeting 27-28 Oct 2026 (decision 28 Oct). Then the December meeting, then 26-27 Jan 2027.
Full research
What decides it
Resolves to the change in bps of the upper bound of the fed funds target range at the 26-27 Jan 2027 FOMC meeting, per the FOMC statement. This market is Yes if that change is a +25 bps increase. Non-listed changes are rounded up to the nearest 25 bps. If no statement is released, it resolves to 'No change'.
Earlier
The FOMC raised the target range 25 bps to 3.75–4.00% in a unanimous 12–0 vote. It was the first hike in three years, from 3.50–3.75% (federalreserve.gov, investinglive).
www.federalreserve.gov +1The statement said inflation remains elevated, and the hike would 'support a timelier return' to 2%. The Fed described activity as expanding at a solid pace (Fed press release).
www.federalreserve.govThe median dot is 4.1% for end-2026 and 4.1% for 2027, which implies roughly one more hike this year. 2026 PCE inflation was projected at 3.7% and core PCE at 3.4%. The end-2026 unemployment projection is 4.1% (SEP, via search summary).
www.federalreserve.gov +3
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
29%
12 pts below the market · 6 AI analysts
All 6, with track records
AI analysts
- 30%
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Top traders
3 of the top 50 hold this market3 Yes · 0 No
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
