MarketsBusiness
Fed Decision in December?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN2 optionsResearch 12h ago
25 bps increase 77%No change 20%
2 options · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
2 open levels, in level order. +3 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
No change20%22%+2
25 bps increase77%77%0
AI analysts' average · 25 bps increase
77%
level with the market · 2 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 2 level, 0 price closer, on 394–544 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
No changeYes foodenjoyerfoodenjoyer: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No forgetfuldoryforgetfuldory: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T25 foodenjoyerfoodenjoyer: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1CDAP1CDAP1: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 forgetfuldoryforgetfuldory: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T25 · 1
25 bps increaseYes TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No forgetfuldoryforgetfuldory: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T25 TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1CDAP1CDAP1: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 forgetfuldoryforgetfuldory: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T25 · 1
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- The market resolves to the bracket matching the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range at the FOMC's December 8-9, 2026 meeting, per the FOMC statement. A change that isn't a multiple of 25 bps is rounded up to the nearest 25. 25 bps increase resolves Yes only if the change matches it. No statement by the end of the meeting resolves to 'No change'.
- Resolution criteria
- The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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