How do I trade on "Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Iran leadership change by...?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN3 levels openCloses Jul 2, 2027Research 13h ago

Polymarket chance · the 3 levels nearest 50%

June 30, 2027 26%December 31 14%November 30 9%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

3 levels open · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

November 309%−1.0 pts5%0 · 3

December 3114%−1.0 pts12%0 · 5

June 30, 202726%—22%1 · 1

3 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket

AI analysts

2 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 13h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

November 309%5%−4

December 3114%12%−2

June 30, 202726%22%−4

AI analysts' average · June 30, 2027

22%

4 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts

Track record

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

News

5d
Netanyahu promises Iran regime change: Can Israel topple Tehran government?
Al Jazeera
6d
Israel's election may change its leader, but not Iran war policy
Reuters

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's geopolitics traders by 3-month profit · updated 23h ago

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

December 31No GoriIIa T1 05 GoriIIa T1tja T2 0 · 5

November 30No GoriIIa T1 03 GoriIIa T1tja T2 0 · 3

June 30, 2027Yes meagainsttheworld T1 No Robbb T21 meagainsttheworld T11 Robbb T21 · 1

Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 3 options

June 30, 2027 resolves Yes if Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). That covers removal, detention, loss of his position, or being prevented from acting as leader. An official announcement of his resignation or removal counts whenever the departure takes effect. Otherwise it resolves No. Trading ends Jul 1, 2027, 03:59 UTC.Show rulesHide rules

In plain English: June 30, 2027 resolves Yes if Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). That covers removal, detention, loss of his position, or being prevented from acting as leader. An official announcement of his resignation or removal counts whenever the departure takes effect. Otherwise it resolves No. Trading ends Jul 1, 2027, 03:59 UTC.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

How markets resolve