How do I trade on "Iran leadership change by November 30?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Iran leadership change by...?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN3 levels openCloses Dec 2, 2026Research 5h ago

Polymarket price · the 3 levels nearest 50%

June 30, 2027 26%December 31 15%November 30 10%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

3 levels open · in level order

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

November 3010%+2.0 pts5%0 · 2

December 3115%+2.0 pts12%0 · 5

June 30, 202726%—18%1 · 0

3 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 5h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

November 3010%5%−5

December 3115%12%−3

June 30, 202726%18%−8

AI analysts' average · November 30

5 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

June 30, 2027: AI 18% vs market 26%, 8 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Polymarket's geopolitics traders by 3-month profit · updated 5h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

December 3150 · 5

November 3020 · 2

June 30, 202711 · 0

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 3 options

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Iran leadership change by...?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN3 levels openCloses Dec 2, 2026Research 5h ago

Polymarket price · the 3 levels nearest 50%

June 30, 2027 26%December 31 15%November 30 10%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

3 levels open · in level order

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

November 3010%+2.0 pts5%0 · 2

December 3115%+2.0 pts12%0 · 5

June 30, 202726%—18%1 · 0

3 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 5h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

November 3010%5%−5

December 3115%12%−3

June 30, 202726%18%−8

AI analysts' average · November 30

5 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

June 30, 2027: AI 18% vs market 26%, 8 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Polymarket's geopolitics traders by 3-month profit · updated 5h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

December 3150 · 5

November 3020 · 2

June 30, 202711 · 0

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 3 options

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Iran leadership change by...?

1AI analysts

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

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Iran leadership change by...?

1AI analysts

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

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AI analysts

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