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Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN10 optionsResearch 16h ago
Nicolás Maduro 79%Delcy Rodríguez 16%Marco Rubio <1%Jorge Rodríguez <1%
10 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
10 options trading, by chance. +6 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Nicolás Maduro79%60%−19
Delcy Rodríguez16%40%+24
Marco Rubio<1%1%+1
Jorge Rodríguez<1%1%+1
Pete Hegseth<1%1%+1
Frank Donovan<1%1%+1
+4 more options
AI analysts' average · Nicolás Maduro
60%
19 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 360 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Nicolás MaduroYes mr.ozimr.ozi: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No BertapotamousBertapotamous: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T13 mr.ozimr.ozi: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1WongKimArkWongKimArk: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 BertapotamousBertapotamous: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T13 · 1
Delcy RodríguezYes M2sx92kljs42M2sx92kljs42: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 4 M2sx92kljs42M2sx92kljs42: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1101456101456: Tier 2, #35 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 04 · 0
Jorge RodríguezYes BigMackyGBigMackyG: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 BigMackyGBigMackyG: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
Diosdado Cabello RondónYes BigMackyGBigMackyG: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 BigMackyGBigMackyG: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
6 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- The market resolves to Nicolás Maduro if that person officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. Resolution uses official Venezuelan government information, then the UN list, then credible reporting. If no one holds the position, it resolves to 'No Head of State'. Nominated, designated or not-yet-effective appointments don't count.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
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