MarketsGeopolitics
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN1 level openResearch 12h ago
December 31 3%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
1 level open
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
1 option trading.
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OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
December 31No melonmanmmelonmanm: Tier 2, #21 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 04 melonmanmmelonmanm: Tier 2, #21 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2realbengvirrealbengvir: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 0 · 4
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Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if Reza Pahlavi physically entered Iran's terrestrial territory between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET; otherwise No, based primarily on a consensus of credible reporting. Entering Iranian airspace or maritime territory does not qualify.
- Watch out
- The rules' deadline is June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, despite the December 31 title. Only physical entry into Iran's terrestrial territory counts.
- Resolution criteria
- If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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