Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN2 levels openResearch 3d ago
December 31 6%October 31 <1%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
2 levels open
2 options trading.
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · December 31
level with the market · 3 AI analysts
Track record
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Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if Iran publicly agrees, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile or any portion of it, meaning transfer abroad or custody outside Iran's influence. Unilateral pledges and preconditions to a broader deal count. Mere limits on enrichment level don't. Otherwise No.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
