MarketsWorld
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN4 levels openResearch 7h ago
December 31 32%November 30 21%November 2 5%October 31 3%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
4 levels open · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
4 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
November 25%11%+6
October 313%5%+2
November 3021%21%0
December 3132%29%−3
AI analysts' average · December 31
29%
3 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 2 level, 0 price closer, on 313–359 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
October 31Yes JustAProfessorJustAProfessor: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No melonmanmmelonmanm: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 JustAProfessorJustAProfessor: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2vortlvortl: Tier 2, #45 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 melonmanmmelonmanm: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 · 1
November 2Yes vortlvortl: Tier 2, #45 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No eCasheCash: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 vortlvortl: Tier 2, #45 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 eCasheCash: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 · 1
November 30Yes vortlvortl: Tier 2, #45 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 vortlvortl: Tier 2, #45 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
1 option: no ranked trader holds it
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- December 31: Yes if, by 11:59 PM ET on that date, the US and Iran announce acceptance of the same diplomatic agreement that sets Iranian commitments aimed at permitting, restoring or increasing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Statements about ongoing or prospective talks do not count. Otherwise No.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
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