MarketsCrypto
Bitcoin difficulty adjustment at block 977,760?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $0
Down >7% 48%Down 3-7% 48%Up 3-7% 48%Down 0-3% 47%
6 optionsin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.Buy
Down >7%No smart money48%
Down 3-7%No smart money48%
Down 0-3%No smart money47%
Up 0-3%No smart money46%
Up 3-7%No smart money48%
Up >7%No smart money47%
6 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
The AI analysts are reviewing this market. Usually within the hour.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
6 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment that occurs at the specified block height. Block 977,760 is the next difficulty retarget height and is currently expected to be reached on or around November 29, 2026 (ET). If the displayed percentage falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". The difficulty adjustment is the percentage change in Bitcoin network difficulty that takes effect at the specified block height, as displayed in the "Change" column of the Adjustments table on the mempool.space Mining Dashboard. A positive percentage is an "up" adjustment and a negative percentage is a "down" adjustment. If mempool.space does not display the adjustment for the specified block height within 2 calendar days (ET) after that block height is reached, the adjustment percentage as shown by a consensus of credible block explorers will be used. If block 977,760 has not been reached by 11:59 PM ET on December 27, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest listed bracket. The resolution source for this market is the mempool.space Mining Dashboard at https://mempool.space/mining, specifically the "Change" column of the Adjustments table for the specified block height. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the difficulty adjustment percentage as displayed on mempool.space, or, where mempool.space does not display it as described above, the consensus of credible block explorers. Values from other sources will not otherwise be considered for the resolution of this market.