MarketsCrypto
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 21?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Resolved0 levels open1 closedResearch 8d ago
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
0 levels open
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
1 closed level
0 options trading. +1 more on Polymarket
The calls
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
AI analysts' average · Bitcoin Up or Down on October 21?
50%
50 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 3 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Up if the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle Close for 12:00 ET on Oct 20, 2026 is lower than the Close of the 12:00 ET candle on Oct 21, 2026. It resolves Down if the Oct 20 Close is higher, and 50-50 if the two are exactly equal.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 20 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 21 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 20 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 21 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
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