California Governor Election: Turnout
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN10 optionsResearch 4d ago
13M-13.5M 27%12.5M-13M 25%<10.5M 21%12M-12.5M 10%
10 options · in level order
10 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · 13M-13.5M
2 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 359 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
10 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- The 13M-13.5M market resolves Yes if total valid votes cast in the 2026 California governor election fall within its bracket, including the lower boundary and excluding the upper boundary; otherwise No. All certified votes for candidates or non-candidate options count, excluding invalidated and blank votes, with first-round totals used in ranked-choice or preferential systems; California Secretary of State official results are primary, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting ma…
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
