Carles Puigdemont back in Spain by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN2 levels openResearch 1d ago
December 31 80%October 31 2%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
2 levels open · in level order
2 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · December 31
16 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 3 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Rules
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- In plain English
- December 31 resolves Yes if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain (Gibraltar excluded) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves No. Airspace and maritime entry do not count. The source is a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
