Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 09:34 UTCCloses Jan 1, 2027Polymarket 24h vol $558.3

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

↑ 1540 46%↑ 1550 23%↑ 1600 6%↑ 1650 3%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

5 levels open

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

↑ 154046%———

↑ 155023%———

↑ 16006%———

↑ 16503%———

↑ 17003%———

5 options trading.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".