How do I trade on "Cuban regime falls in 2026?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN1 level openCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 8d ago

Polymarket chance · the 1 levels nearest 50%

Cuban regime falls in 2026? 10%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

1 level open

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Cuban regime falls in 2026?10%−2.5 pts5%0 · 5

1 option trading.

AI analysts

2 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 8d ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Cuban regime falls in 2026?10%5%−5

AI analysts' average · Cuban regime falls in 2026?

5 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts

Track record

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

News

No headlines about this market in the last 7 days.

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's geopolitics traders by 3-month profit · updated 3h ago

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

Cuban regime falls in 2026?No controls T2 05 controls T2melonmanm T2 0 · 5

Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 1 options

Show rulesHide rules

In plain English: Yes if by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET the PCC clearly ceases to exercise de facto governing control of Cuba (overthrow, transfer of power, or elections producing a non-PCC government), per consensus of credible reporting. Leadership changes, reforms that keep PCC control, or unrest do not count. Otherwise No.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba. Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

How markets resolve