MarketsPolitics
Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN4 optionsResearch 3d ago
Jon Ossoff 36%Gavin Newsom 32%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 30%Josh Shapiro <1%
4 options · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
4 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Jon Ossoff36%36%0
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez30%32%+2
Gavin Newsom32%26%−6
Josh Shapiro<1%1%+1
AI analysts' average · Jon Ossoff
36%
level with the market · 2 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 2 level, 0 price closer, on 360–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Jon OssoffYes anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935: Tier 2, #37 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
3 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Resolves Yes for Jon Ossoff if it has the highest hourly 'Odds of Happening' value (to 0.1%) in the '2028 Democratic Nomination' listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the Time Window (ET) ending 12:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. If the top option isn't a listed market option, the result is 'Other'. A NO_PRINT uses the option's latest earlier value. If nothing is published for the window, the market may stay open until Nov 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Ties go to the option with the higher value in the…
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the option with the highest hourly odds value in the "2028 Democratic Nomination" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. If that option is not a listed outcome of this market, this market will resolve to "Other". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for an option for the specified window, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window for an option (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. An option with no hourly odds value published in that period will not be considered. If two or more options are tied for the highest value, the tie will be broken in favor of the tied option with the higher value in the most recent earlier window in which their values differed. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the tied option whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve in favor of the outcome of the underlying market if it is a listed outcome, and otherwise to "Other". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the options in the "2028 Democratic Nomination" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/dem-nomination-2028.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
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