El Salvador ends Haiti deployment by...?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 23:34 UTCCloses Jul 1, 2027Polymarket 24h vol $0

Polymarket chance · the 3 levels nearest 50%

December 31 50%June 30, 2027 50%March 31, 2027 51%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

3 levels open · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

December 3150%———

March 31, 202751%———

June 30, 202750%———

3 open levels, in level order.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 3 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of El Salvador announces it has withdrawn all military forces deployed to Haiti since October 18, 2026, or that this deployment has ended, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that the government of El Salvador announces that all Salvadoran military forces deployed to Haiti since October 18, 2026, have withdrawn from Haitian territory or that this deployment has ended. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal, or of a partial drawdown, will not suffice. Absent such an announcement, this market will also resolve to "Yes" if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that all Salvadoran military forces deployed to Haiti since October 18, 2026, have withdrawn from Haitian territory by the specified date. Salvadoran personnel serving under the command of the UN-authorized Gang Suppression Force (GSF) will not be considered toward this market's resolution. If forces deployed to Haiti since October 18, 2026, are formally placed under the command of the GSF, they will be treated as GSF personnel for the purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of El Salvador, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that El Salvador has withdrawn may also be used.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of El Salvador announces it has withdrawn all military forces deployed to Haiti since October 18, 2026, or that this deployment has ended, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that the government of El Salvador announces that all Salvadoran military forces deployed to Haiti since October 18, 2026, have withdrawn from Haitian territory or that this deployment has ended. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal, or of a partial drawdown, will not suffice. Absent such an announcement, this market will also resolve to "Yes" if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that all Salvadoran military forces deployed to Haiti since October 18, 2026, have withdrawn from Haitian territory by the specified date. Salvadoran personnel serving under the command of the UN-authorized Gang Suppression Force (GSF) will not be considered toward this market's resolution. If forces deployed to Haiti since October 18, 2026, are formally placed under the command of the GSF, they will be treated as GSF personnel for the purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of El Salvador, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that El Salvador has withdrawn may also be used.