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EU adopts Chinese telecom gear phase-out law by...?
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Polymarket prices · as of Last trade · 7m agoPolymarket 24h vol $15.1K
December 31, 2028 34%June 30, 2028 29%December 31, 2027 12%June 30, 2027 3%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
4 levels openin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.AI analystsBuy
June 30, 2027No smart money3%
December 31, 2027No smart money12%15%
June 30, 2028No smart money29%22%
December 31, 2028No smart money34%40%
4 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
June 30, 20273%
December 31, 202712%15%+3
June 30, 202829%22%−7
December 31, 202834%40%+6
AI analysts' average · June 30, 2027
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Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if by the option's date (11:59 PM CET/CEST) the EU formally adopts, via Parliament and Council approval, a regulation or directive requiring mobile network operators to phase out equipment from Chinese or high-risk suppliers within 36 months, fixed in the act itself. Proposals, trilogue deals and committee votes do not count.
- Watch out
- A deadline longer than 36 months, or one left to later implementing acts, disqualifies the act. Trilogue agreement alone is not adoption.
- Resolution criteria
- On January 20, 2026, the European Commission proposed a revised Cybersecurity Act ("CSA2", Commission proposal COM(2026) 11) that would require EU mobile network operators to phase out equipment from designated high-risk suppliers, a measure widely reported to target Huawei and ZTE. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union formally adopts legislation that requires EU mobile network operators to phase out equipment from Chinese suppliers, as defined below, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Central European Time (CET/CEST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation may include the revised Cybersecurity Act, any successor proposal, or any other legislative act, provided it is a regulation or directive adopted under the ordinary or a special legislative procedure, binding in all EU Member States, and meets all of the following requirements: - apply to providers of public mobile electronic communications networks generally or to a defined class of them (e.g., providers of 5G networks or operators above a size threshold), and may also apply to other networks; - require the removal, replacement, or phase-out of already-deployed core network and/or radio access network equipment, rather than only banning new purchases, installation, or certification; - apply to suppliers established in, or controlled from, the People's Republic of China (e.g., Huawei and ZTE), either by name or through a designation mechanism capable of covering them (e.g., "high-risk suppliers", or a designation of China as a high-risk third country), whether or not China or any Chinese supplier has been designated by the specified date; and - set a phase-out deadline of no more than 36 months, as a fixed date or a period (e.g., “within 36 months after entry into force”), counted from the entry into force of the act setting it, the relevant provision’s date of application, or a later designation of suppliers under that act (e.g., publication of a list of high-risk suppliers); where these dates are not yet known, the adoption date will be used. This limit must be fixed in the act itself: case-by-case or risk-based timelines without it, and deadlines whose length is left to later implementing or delegated acts, will not qualify, but an implementing or delegated act that only designates suppliers, and so starts the clock, will not disqualify an act, nor will extensions for individual operators in exceptional cases if the general deadline is met; however, an act will not qualify if it allows the deadline to be extended beyond 36 months generally, for a whole Member State, or for a whole class of operators. These requirements may be met by provisions of more than one such act, provided the provisions together impose a single removal obligation meeting all requirements, and each act is formally adopted by the specified date, 11:59 PM CET/CEST. Recommendations, guidance, Council conclusions, the 5G Security Toolbox, and national legislation will not qualify. Legislation is considered formally adopted once the final step required under the applicable legislative procedure is complete; under the ordinary legislative procedure, this is approval of the final text by both the European Parliament and the Council of the EU, including Council approval by written procedure, adoption by both institutions of a joint text approved by the Conciliation Committee under Article 294(13) TFEU, or the act being deemed adopted under Article 294(7)(a) TFEU. Provisional agreements reached in trilogue, committee votes, Council general approaches, or a position of either institution not yet approved by the other will not qualify. Signature and publication in the Official Journal of the EU are not required, but publication will be considered conclusive evidence of adoption. Whether legislation qualifies will be determined by its adopted text. Subsequent annulment, amendment, or repeal of qualifying legislation will not affect a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution sources for this market will be EUR-Lex and the Official Journal of the EU, the European Parliament Legislative Observatory (OEIL), and official information from the Council of the EU; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.