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FAA outage attributed to Iran?
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FAA outage attributed to Iran? 2%
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FAA outage attributed to Iran?Yes hugecaulkhugecaulk: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 hugecaulkhugecaulk: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2grothgroth: Tier 2, #47 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
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Rules
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- In plain English
- Yes if, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, an authorized named U.S. federal government representative officially states that the Iranian state (including the IRGC or intelligence services, or persons acting on their orders) carried out, caused, ordered or directed the November 13, 2026 FAA outage. Federal criminal charges alleging this also count. Statements that Iranian involvement is suspected, likely or consistent with Iranian activity, anonymous officials, foreign governments, and attribution to proxies such as Hezbollah alone do not count.
- Watch out
- Statements that Iran is suspected, likely or not ruled out, anonymous officials, and attribution to proxies such as Hezbollah alone do not count. Only an on-record U.S. government attribution to the Iranian state, or federal charges, counts.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government officially attributes the November 13, 2026, FAA outage to Iran between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The FAA outage refers to the equipment and communications outage that led the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to issue a nationwide ground stop on departures from U.S. airports on November 13, 2026. A qualifying attribution is a public statement by an authorized representative of the U.S. federal government acting in an official capacity stating that the outage was carried out, caused, ordered, or directed by the Iranian state, including its armed forces (including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)) or intelligence services, or by persons acting on their instructions. Criminal charges filed by U.S. federal prosecutors alleging that the outage was caused on behalf of the aforementioned Iranian state services will also qualify. Attributions to Iranian proxy or partner groups, such as Hezbollah, will not qualify, unless the statement also states that the Iranian state, as defined above, carried out, ordered, or directed the outage. Statements describing Iranian involvement as suspected, likely, probable, or not ruled out, or stating only that the outage bears the hallmarks of or is consistent with Iranian activity, will not qualify. Statements by anonymous or unnamed officials or by governments of other countries will not qualify on their own. Once a qualifying attribution is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of any later retraction, Iranian denial, or the outcome of legal proceedings. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements and publications from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.