MarketsBusiness
Fed Decision in October?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN5 optionsResearch 14h ago
No change 95%25 bps increase 5%50+ bps increase <1%50+ bps decrease <1%
5 options · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
5 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
50+ bps decrease<1%1%+1
25 bps decrease<1%1%+1
No change95%87%−8
25 bps increase5%6%+1
50+ bps increase<1%1%+1
AI analysts' average · No change
87%
8 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 3 level, 1 price closer, on 312–544 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
No changeYes HH168HH168: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 25 HH168HH168: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1Ronaldo2100Ronaldo2100: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 10 TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1TheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengardTheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengard: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 25 · 10
25 bps increaseYes TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No S55S55: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 18 TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1TheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengardTheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengard: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 8 S55S55: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2forgetfuldoryforgetfuldory: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 18 · 8
50+ bps increaseYes MysticFindMysticFind: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No foodenjoyerfoodenjoyer: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 7 MysticFindMysticFind: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T150-Pence50-Pence: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 foodenjoyerfoodenjoyer: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1purplegattopurplegatto: Tier 2, #19 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 7 · 3
50+ bps decreaseYes foodenjoyerfoodenjoyer: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 7 foodenjoyerfoodenjoyer: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1HH168HH168: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 07 · 0
25 bps decreaseYes ratehikesratehikes: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T13 ratehikesratehikes: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1purplegattopurplegatto: Tier 2, #19 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T13 · 1
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- The market resolves to the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range set at the FOMC's October 27-28, 2026 meeting, measured against the level before the meeting. No change resolves Yes if the change matches its bracket (50+ bps cut, 25 bps cut, no change, 25 bps hike, 50+ bps hike). A change that isn't a multiple of 25 bps is rounded up to the nearest 25. The FOMC statement decides. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to 'No change'.
- Resolution criteria
- The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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